What made October’s jobs report a “blowout”?
Economists polled by Reuters expected U.S. employers to add 65,000 jobs in October. They missed by 100,000. When the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its figures on November 6, the tally was 165,000, and unemployment had edged down from 4.2% to 4.1%. Read the federal report · See the Reuters forecast.
Edward Jones strategist Angelo Kourkafas called it a “blowout.” The surprise extended back into the summer. Employers added 84,000 more jobs in August and September combined than earlier estimates showed. September alone went from a gain of 29,000 to 60,000, more than double the figure employers and forecasters had been working with. Read Kourkafas’s reaction.
Where did the October jobs turn up? Professional and business services added 70,000, accounting for about two in five of the new jobs. Within that group, professional, scientific and technical services gained 33,000. Health care added another 42,000 jobs, and transportation and warehousing added 25,000, including 17,000 among couriers and messengers. See the industry breakdown.
For workers looking for more hours, October told a different story.
The number of people working part time who wanted full-time work rose by 339,000 to 4.8 million. Some had their hours cut. Others could find only part-time work. An employer adding a job counts in the payroll survey. Whether that job offers someone all the hours they want is a question the government asks households. October’s answers explain how hiring could beat the forecast so handily while more workers came up short on hours. See the household survey.
