Metro-rural divide drives Republicans’ statewide advantage in Oklahoma
Democrats hold a one-point edge across Oklahoma’s two largest metro areas, while Republicans lead by 43 points throughout the rest of the state.
Republicans’ statewide advantage in Oklahoma comes largely from their dominance outside the Oklahoma City and Tulsa metro areas, according to a new survey from Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates.
Democrats lead 46% to 45% across the six counties that make up the state’s two largest metro areas. In Oklahoma’s remaining 71 counties, Republicans lead 66% to 23%.
Those margins produce a 20-point Republican advantage statewide. Fifty-five percent of voters said they would support the Republican candidate in their legislative district, compared with 35% who chose the Democrat. It is the firm’s largest recorded Republican advantage since 2014.
Republican nominees also hold double-digit leads in several statewide contests. U.S. Senate candidate Kevin Hern leads Democratic candidates N’Kiyla Jasmine Thomas by 24 points and Jim Priest by 21 points in separate matchups.
T.W. Shannon leads Kelly Forbes 51% to 34% in the race for lieutenant governor. Jon Echols leads Nick Coffey 52% to 34% in the attorney general’s race.
The Republican advantage persists despite mixed assessments of Oklahoma’s direction. Forty-seven percent of respondents said the state is moving in the right direction, while 42% said it is on the wrong track. President Donald Trump’s favorable and unfavorable ratings both stood at 48%.
The findings also raise the stakes of Oklahoma’s Aug. 25 Republican runoffs for governor, state superintendent, insurance commissioner, and labor commissioner. CHS estimates approximately 320,000 voters will participate.
